A breakdown of the different property forecasts

Steve van Wyk, Seeff’s MD in Centurion gives a breakdown of these forecasts and explains the information contained in each.

FNB

FNB produces the FNB Residential Property Barometer every quarter and this comprises of a survey from a sample of estate agents in the major cities regarding their personal experience of market conditions.

The main question relates to the level of demand that these agents experience on a scale of one to 10. This survey includes the property confidence indicator, the proportion of buyers buying to let, the number of first time buyers, the average time that a property stays on the market, the percentage drop in asking price and the reason for selling.

FNB also produces a monthly House Price Index report which shows average house price inflation and an average house price index, based on data acquired from the deeds office and other sources. The data is based on the average selling price of property and is plotted monthly on a graph.

FNB also produces various other reports including a quarterly Household Sector Credit Risk and Household Mortgage Update Reports.

ABSA

ABSA produces the ABSA House Price Index Report every month.

This is based on the total purchase price of houses in the 80m² to 400m² size, where the mortgage loan (bond) was applied for through ABSA.

The survey is then further broken down to 80-140m², 141-220m² and 221-400m². The information goes back to 1966 and is therefore based on the average of these monthly transactions. The survey shows both nominal and real (nominal less inflation) changes on a year by year basis.

ABSA also produce a monthly Residential Building Statistics report which is based on the number of building plans approved. This report shows the data for houses less than 80m², houses greater than 80m² as well for flats and townhouses.

The report shows the number and the percentage for each of these three categories. The report is further broken down into plans passed and buildings completed for each of the nine provinces.

ABSA also produces a quarterly Housing Review report based on the information in the monthly House Price Indices Report and a monthly Mortgage Advances report.

LIGHTSTONE

LIGHTSTONE produces a monthly report setting out the house price inflation.

This report is based on data obtained from the Deeds office and therefore includes all transactions.

The report shows data for the nine provinces, major inland municipalities as well as the major coastal municipalities. Also included is information on coastal versus non-coastal property, sectional title versus freehold property and area value bands split between luxury, high value, mid value and affordable.

OOBA

OOBA Produce a monthly “Oobarometer” which shows the average percentage increases on the price of property.

The report includes the following information: average purchase price, average purchase price of a first time buyer, average approved bond amount, average deposit as a percentage and Rand amount of the purchase price, average age of the applicant as well as the declined ratio.

The information used is that from OOBA’s in house applications.

STANDARD BANK

Standard Bank produces a monthly Residential Property Gauge report which is not based on the average price, but on the mean price. The mean price is that price where 50% of the number of sales is below that price and 50% above that price.

The report plots the year on year percentage increase or decrease in property prices. The information is taken from the transactions of Standard Bank only.